Lake City Housing Trade-off Simulator

📊 How the Numbers Work

🏠 Base Community Data

Population: 774 residents

Year-Round Households: 380

Total Housing Units: 1,365

5-Year Demand Pool: 245 households

Source: State Demography Office & Market Analysis, 2025

👥 Workers per Household

Survey Average: 1.52 workers/household

Renters: 1.54 workers/household

Owners: 1.46 workers/household

<60% AMI: 1.0 workers (many retirees)

60-80% AMI: 1.39 workers (near average)

80-120% AMI: 1.54+ workers (dual income needed)

Source: 2025 Lake City Housing Survey

💰 Subsidy Assumptions

Rental Subsidies (per unit):

• <60% AMI: $400k (Prop 123 eligible + operations)

• 60-80% AMI: $250k (LIHTC + local subsidy)

• 80-120% AMI: $100k (light local subsidy)

Ownership Subsidies (per unit):

• 80-100% AMI: $260k gap

• 100-120% AMI: $200k gap

• 120-150% AMI: $100k gap

Note: Prop 123 funds rentals only up to 60% AMI

🎯 Community Impact Calculations

Essential Workers: 60% of workforce units

Service Workers: 70% of <60% AMI units

Seniors Downsizing: 30% of <60% AMI units

Commute Reduction: 60% of all units

Economic Impact: $30k/year per household

School Children:

• Rentals: 30-40% have kids × 0.7 children

• Ownership: 80-90% have kids × 1.2 children

⚖️ Housing Balance

Current: 28% year-round, 72% vacant/seasonal

New balance = (380 + new units) ÷ (1,365 + new units)

Every new unit slightly increases year-round housing share

⚠️ Important Limitations

• Simplified model - actual costs vary by site & timing

• All figures in 2025 dollars (no inflation)

• Assumes even development over 5 years

• Based on best available data - will be updated

Questions about these assumptions?
Contact: sarah@westernspaces.co | ethan@dynamicplanning.co | grant@proximitygreen.com | jmoffett@tpsconsulting.net

Housing Production Choices

Total Units to Build (5 years) 40
% Rental vs Ownership 70% Rental
28
12
Rental Units Ownership Units

Rental Income Targeting

<60% AMI: Service workers ($32-45k), retail, restaurant, fixed-income seniors

60-80% AMI: Entry teachers, skilled trades ($48-65k)

80-120% AMI: Young professionals, dual earners ($65-98k)

% Below 60% AMI (Prop 123 Eligible) 40%
% at 60-80% AMI (Workforce) 30%
% at 80-120% AMI (Moderate) 30%
⚠️ Rental percentages must equal 100%

Ownership Income Targeting

80-120% AMI: Teachers ($55-75k), nurses, public safety

100-150% AMI: Managers ($80-120k), dual-income professionals

Development Assumptions

✓ Land provided at no cost

✓ Basic infrastructure in place

✓ Standard construction costs

Subsidy Estimates:

• Prop 123 eligible (<60%): ~$400k/unit

• Workforce (60-100%): ~$200-250k/unit

• Moderate (100-150%): ~$100-150k/unit

Community Impacts

40
Households Served
32
New Workers Can Live Here
+12
School-Age Children
$1.2M
Annual Economic Impact

Who Gets Housed?

<60% AMI: 11
60-80%: 8
80-120%: 21

Community Benefits

Essential Workers
18 teachers, nurses, EMTs housed
Service Workers
8 retail, restaurant, hospitality workers
Seniors Aging in Place
3 seniors can downsize
Commute Reduction
25 fewer daily commuters

Impact on Housing Balance

Current Balance With New Units
28%
72% Vacant/Seasonal
31%
69%
Year-Round Housing Vacant/Seasonal

Investment Required

$8.2M
Total subsidy over 5 years
$5.4M
Rental Subsidy
28 units | $193k/unit
$2.8M
Ownership Subsidy
12 units | $233k/unit
$1.6M per year | $205k average per household

Making the Trade-offs

8
Units per Year
16%
of Housing Need Met
+10%
Population Growth
31%
Year-Round Housing

This balanced plan would strengthen our community by housing 40 essential workers and families, adding 12 children to our schools, and reducing commuters by 25 vehicles daily.

Next Step: Funding Strategies

Prop 123 Eligible (<60% AMI)

Requires: Prop 123, 9% LIHTC, HOME funds, state/local grants

Partners: CHFA, Gunnison Valley RHA, nonprofits

Strategies: Project-based vouchers, operating subsidies, master leasing

Workforce Housing (60-120% AMI)

Requires: 4% LIHTC, DOLA grants, local funding

Partners: Major employers, public-private partnerships

Strategies: Employer housing funds, deed restrictions, inclusionary zoning

Ownership (80-150% AMI)

Requires: CHFA loans, Prop 123 homeownership, local DPA

Partners: Local banks, community land trust, PPPs

Strategies: Shared equity, buy-down programs, ADU financing

Your Mix Requires:

A balanced approach requiring multiple funding sources including LIHTC, employer partnerships, and local revenue generation.